Field notes

Working notes on tests, measurement, and the results that did not hold.

We write these for ourselves first. Every number has a source, every method has the workings attached, and when we got something wrong we say so in the note rather than quietly editing it.

Aug 23, 2026

I measured how many SaaS companies run A/B tests. My first answer was wrong by 84%, and the reason is the same one that ruins most tests.

The measurement took twenty minutes. Checking the measurement took forty, and it moved the headline number from 46% to 25%. I am writing up the mistake rather than the finding, because the mistake is the more useful of the two.

Measurement
9 min
Aug 14, 2026

Attribution said the ads returned 4,173%. The experiment on the same spend said minus 63%.

eBay ran the experiment, published it, and the gap between the dashboard and the truth was about forty times. Then I sized a holdout for a normal advertiser and found most of them cannot run one.

Measurement
10 min
Aug 13, 2026

I sized a checkout test for a client and the answer was thirty months. Most shops cannot test their checkout at all.

A 5% lift on checkout completion needs about 15,000 sessions per variant. At a thousand checkout starts a month that is two and a half years, which is longer than the checkout will exist.

Checkout
10 min
Aug 12, 2026

I ran 200,000 tests with no winner in them. A daily peek found a winner in 27 of every 100.

The false positive rate is supposed to sit at 5%. I measured what happens to it when somebody opens the dashboard every morning, and the honest answer is 27.44%. Then I found out that a bigger site does not help.

Method
10 min